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Deflation: Why it's coming, whether it's good or bad, and how it will affect your investments, business, and personal affairs, by A. Gary Shilling
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From the Back Cover
How will the coming deflation affect you? What strategies will work in the deflation years ahead? Look inside for Investment Strategy for Deflation 13 Elements Business Strategy for Deflation 18 Elements Personal Strategy for Deflation 5 Elements 269 Easy-to-Read Tables and Graphs "Gary Shilling was the first to understand the unwinding of inflation. Now he explores the prospects for deflation, and how investors can profit from it. I think he's right on. You should read it." Ed Hyman, Chairman ISI Group "Take a deep breath before you sit down with Deflation. I can almost guarantee that you'll find it a shocker." Richard Russell, Editor Dow Theory Letters "The arguments Dr. Shilling puts forth are well made, cogently argued, pleasantly written and most importantly of all, correct. In the words of Siskel and Ebert, we give Dr. Shilling's new book an enthusiastic two thumbs up!" Dennis Gartman, Editor/Publisher The Gartman Letter "The beauty of this book is that it explains how we investors who are well positioned can reap huge gains from the coming deflation." Marc Faber, Author & Publisher The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report
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About the Author
Dr. A. Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Company, Inc., economic consultants and investment advisors, managing individual and institutional accounts. The firm also publishes INSIGHT, a monthly report of economic forecasts and investment strategy, and Dr. Shilling advises Thematic Investment Partners and Thematic Futures Fund, investment partnerships oriented toward economic, financial, and political themes. A regular columnist for Forbes magazine, he has been twice ranked as Wall Street's top economist by Institutional Investor magazine's poll of financial institutions , and Futures magazine ranked him the country's number one Commodity Trading Advisor in 1993. Although Dr. Shilling does not yet manage any mutual funds, CNBC anchor Bill Griffeth was so impressed with his investment approach that he profiled him along with 19 well-known mutual fund managers in his 1995 book, The Mutual Fund Masters. Dr. Shilling is well known for his forecasting record. In the spring of 1969 he was among the few who correctly saw that a recession would start late in the year. In 1973 he stood almost alone in forecasting that the world was entering a massive inventory building spree to be followed by the first major worldwide recession since the 1930s. In the late 1970s, when most thought that raging inflation would last forever, he was the first to predict that the changing political mood of the country would lead to an end of severe inflation, as well as to potentially serious financial and economic readjustment problems. His first book, co-authored with Kiril Sokoloff, was published by McGraw-Hill in the spring of 1983 and entitled Is Inflation Ending? Are You Ready? In it, the authors answered the first question in the title with a resounding yes. But to the second they said, no, you're not ready. Your investments, your business, and your personal life are geared to inflation lasting forever, not disinflation. Your portfolio is crammed full of tangible assets like coins, antiques, and real estate the great inflation hedges of the 1965-80 era of accelerating prices, but assets that would suffer as inflation rates fell. At the same time, you own far too few financial assets, especially stocks and bonds disastrous investments in periods of high inflation, but great winners in disinflation. Inflation, however, was so deeply ingrained in everyone's thinking that the initial signs of its exit were ignored. The book's reviewers basically dismissed the authors' ideas. But by the mid 1980s, their forecast of inflation's demise began to look credible. In a delayed victory of sorts, David Warsh of the Boston Globe essentially reviewed the book in that newspaper's March 13, 1986, edition, and Bruce Ramsey did the same for the April 2, 1986, issue of the Seattle Post Intelligence in an article entitled "A preposterous economic prediction that came true." By then inflation rates not only had fallen considerably, but stocks and bonds were thriving while tangibles were in trouble. Dr. Shilling was convinced that more of the same lay ahead because the world of shortages seemed to be over and a world of surpluses was in prospect. His second book, The World Has Definitely Changed New Economic Forces and Their Implications for the Next Decade (Lakeview Press, 1986) , spelled out this thesis. The 1987 stock market crash raised the possibility that deflation and not just low inflation might be in the cards, and his third book, After the Crash, Recession or Depression? (Lakeview Economic Services, 1988), explored this idea. Despite the title, he wasn't specifically forecasting deflation, but came closer to doing so when he, assisted by Anne D. Willard, created "The Deflation Game" in 1989. It's a Monopoly-like board game that is biased toward winning with financial asset holdings and losing with tangibles. Dr. Shilling is widely recognized as the world's oldest living disinflationist, since his forecast of low inflation is over 20 years old and his suggestion of possible deflation has been around for about a decade. He received his A.B. degree in physics, magna cum laude, from Amherst College, where he was also elected to Phi Beta Kappa and Sigma Xi. He earned his M.A. and Ph.D. in economics at Stanford University. Before establishing his own firm in 1978, Dr. Shilling was Senior Vice President and Chief Economist of White, Weld & Co., Inc. Earlier he set up the Economics Department at Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith at age 29 and served as the firm's first chief economist. Prior to Merrill Lynch, he was with Standard Oil Co. (N.J.) where he was in charge of U.S. and Canadian economic analysis and forecasting. In addition to writing for Forbes, Dr. Shilling is a columnist for Standard & Poor's CreditWeek and a member of The Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Japan Economic Journal) Board of Economists. He appears frequently on business radio and television shows. Dr. Shilling is on the Board of Directors of National Life of Vermont, the Heartland Group of mutual funds, the American Productivity and Quality Center, Palm Harbor Homes, the Episcopal Evangelism Foundation of which he is Chairman; an Advisory Director of Austin Trust Company; a Trustee and the Treasurer of the General Theological Seminary (Episcopal); and a Chairman of the New Jersey State Revenue Forecasting Advisory Commission. He is also an avid beekeeper.
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Product details
Paperback: 400 pages
Publisher: Lakeview Pub Co; 1 edition (June 1, 1998)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 0961856246
ISBN-13: 978-0961856243
Product Dimensions:
5.2 x 1 x 8.2 inches
Shipping Weight: 8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
3.4 out of 5 stars
7 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#1,308,590 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
Good explanation of why inflation probably will not be a problem in the not too distant future.His reasons: demographics (boomers are aging and buy less) (generations since boomers have been smaller, purchase as much to keep prices rising) (virtually no wage gains for so long means companies cannot pass on price increases) (low interest rates for a long time do not seem to have generated run away inflation) (increased competition all over the world)This is a good book on a subject most folks haven't considered. This book would give a good foundation in the concept of deflation - it was last serious during the Great Depression of the 30's.
Good source of what to consider when trying to decipher situation, old data
Deflation never happened. Maybe it was all the money the Fed pumped into the economy for problems that never happened like the Y2K or Millennium bug. Then we got the housing and real estate bubbleflation followed by a panic and more money pumping. With so much officious meddling how can you forecast anything? I guess we'll just have to keep on flying by the seat of the pants.
Shilling predicts good - rather than bad deflation (at least for the USA): i.e. surging demand absorbing excess supply because of price falls. It is a US-centric view - weaker on the international side. Deflation addresses an important & neglected subject. The slow start is tolerable because of good, up-to-date graphs and data generally. Happily he is consultant-clear rather than economist-arcane. His analysis of the US economy is compelling & useful for foreign readers. Nonetheless, there are questions: will policymakers (including central bankers) not adjust; e.g. I understand that defense spending has started rising again. Shilling's review of factors such as the internet is useful. The foreign material is poorer - though his Asian chapters are good. Bizarrely for such a serious & scholarly work, there is no index.Shilling is worth reading - he thinks the west will experience `good' rather than `bad' deflation - but how deep will the Deflation be and how long will it last? He could have usefully studied natural resources in more depth; after all, this is where deflation hit hardest and earliest. I will read him again.
A careful look at the book shows that Shilling's THEORY for deflation is based on the longwaves of Kondratieff. Shilling uses a real (as in real business cycle literature) rather than a monetary interpretation (a la Milton Friedman, Irving Fisher..) of longwaves which results in his use of 1974 (following the oil shock) rather than 1980 (following the tight monetary policies by central banks under the guise of Monetarist doctrine) as the beginning of the current wave down.
This book will help you make sense out of the headlines you have been seeing everyday in the business section of your paper. It will help you "connect the dots" about megatrends you maybe were aware of, but not taking into account with your investment decisions. I read this back in August 1998, and it is amazing how current events seem to be playing out almost exactly as forecasted in the book. You should not miss the chance to read this.
This is a great warning to beware of a series of ONE. Look how well it rated and look at the INFLATION we are facing now, this could change of course but only after the FED pushes inflation as far as it can without blow back. Predicting the future can be as hard as forecasting the weather.
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